Risk Quotient
February 10, 2008
Threat # 1: Bird Flu
Like terrorism, Avian Influenza has dropped off the front pages and off the radar screen for most Americans, but just because the story doesn't get much media play doesn't mean it isn't a serious threat. In fact, a Bird Flu or similar pandemic heads the list of Captain Dave's Survival Quotient because it could kill so many people and cause a significant disruption of our society for a lengthy period of time.
While a pandemic would be a global problem, the United States and other developed countries would be among the most vulnerable. The high density of people living in cities, our dependence on our massive transportation infrastructure, and the huge public schools found in most cities and even in rural areas all make the spread of any highly contagious human disease very likely. (Public schools and day care centers are melting pots of viral and bacteria infections in the best of times.)
The Bird Flu is like the perfect storm, a confluence of events that make things worse than a simple illness. Our society has become so interlocked and interdependent that one weak link can bring down the entire structure. And in Captain Dave's opinion, Bird Flu could kick off the collapse of society as we know it.
Consider the following two paragraphs from a Washington Post story of February 2, 2008 by Christopher Lee entitled U.S. Flu Outbreak Plan Criticized:
A serious outbreak and its fallout would probably overwhelm medical centers, cause lengthy delays in emergency and routine care, and trigger shortages of beds, ventilators, drugs, masks, gloves and other supplies, experts said. Unlike a hurricane or a terrorist bombing, the crisis would drag on for months and affect communities nationwide at the same time.
Doctors and nurses would be swamped at a time when many of them and their family members would also be falling seriously ill, thinning their ranks and forcing some to choose between helping loved ones or patients. A vaccine, if one becomes available, could be difficult to transport and distribute, and imperfect vaccines and antiviral drugs used in the early stages of an outbreak probably could not forestall a pandemic. The "just in time" economy on which many hospitals rely for shipments of drugs and medical supplies, many of them from overseas manufacturers, would quickly fall apart.
This addresses medical centers
and supplies, but it fails to address the rest of our society, which
also depends on a just-in-time system to keep food on store shelves
and gasoline in car tanks. If people stay home from work to care for
sick relatives or to keep from getting sick, that just in time system
falters. If the government limits transportation to prevent the
spread of disease, that just in time system quickly fails. Milk,
bread, eggs, fruits, vegetable, meat and other fresh products quickly
disappear from store shelves, followed by canned goods and other non-perishable
foods. Prescription drugs run out, followed quickly by simple
medicines like Tylenol. Then fuel tanks start running dry.
Before you know it, coal isn’t being delivered to power plants, and
chlorine isn't being delivered to water treatment plants. Our
utilities start to fail, the quality of life will really degrade and
the death rate will increase.
And if nurses and doctors decide to stay home and treat family members rather than patients, what do you think police officers will do? How many of them will stay home rather than deal with the unwashed masses and the potential germs they carry?
If you have not prepared for
Bird Flu, you need to. Read more about what you can do to prepare
for a pandemic.
Threat # 2: Terrorism
In the six year since the Twin Towers came tumbling down in the world's worst terrorist attack, the average American appears to have largely forgotten the threat of terrorism. Thanks to our success in preventing a future attack on our soil, Terrorism has been pushed off the front pages and well behind our daily concerns. Americans assume that the government will keep them safe, detecting and disrupting terrorist attacks before they can be carried out.
Unfortunately, as the average American goes about his or her day, the average Islamic Militants or Jihadists is plotting new ways to kill Americans. As soccer moms load their minivans, terrorists sell a load of heroine to raise money for weapons. As American employees listen to their senior managers outline plans for the next fiscal quarter, Islamic fundamentalists listen to militant speakers outline plans for bringing down the Great Satan. As American teenagers search online for the latest download from their favorite band, Saudi teenagers download the latest rants from Osama Bin Laden and other militant leaders. And as Americans play first person shooter video games from the comfort of their dorm rooms and living rooms, young militant Muslims from across the Middle East train in secret camps, learning how to become actual shooters.
As Americans pursue the American dream of wealth and happiness, Militant Islamo-facists pursue ways to derail the American Dream and all it stands for. They are seeking ways to strike deep into the American psyche, to keep us lying awake in fear, to send our economy tumbling into a recession and to strike a blow for Allah that will both shock non-believers and send the Muslim faithful dancing in the streets.
Our counter terrorism forces re good, and our intelligence gathering is second to none. But because terrorists only have to get lucky once in a while, it is inevitable that they will one day succeed in striking us here at home. The war on terror will last as long as the Cold War, flaring into the conscious of the U.S. public only upon occasion. Yet it in Captain Dave's book, it remains a more dangerous threat than the housing bust or even a Democrat in the White House.
The greatest danger lies in an attack with a Weapon of Mass Destruction, especially a nuclear device or biological weapon.
Threat #3: Problems in Pakistan
The mountainous tribal region of Pakistan adjacent to the Afghanistan border is a hot bed of Al Qaeda terrorists, Taliban members and sympathizers. It has become the new Afghanistan, a place where Osama bin Laden and his buddies hide out, plot the destruction of Western Civilization and issue instructions to their followers around the world.
Recently, following after the assassination of Pakistani opposition leader Bhutto, President Bush and the administration have been talking about problems in Pakistan and the potential need to intervene. While they are talking about it now, the problems has persisted for some time and there is no easy end in sight. The Pakistan government lacks the will or the ability to pursue terrorists in this part of their country and the U.S. does not yet feel the need to violate Pakistan's sovereignty enough to directly attack terrorists in Pakistan, primarily because we need Pakistan's support in other phases of the war on terror and we fear what will happen to Pakistan and their nuclear arsenal if their current government fails.
But the danger of this growing
menace is Pakistan is clear. Al Qaeda and Jihadist groups are
using the tribal region of Pakistan to rebuild their terror organizations,
to raise money through the sale of heroine, to train, and to plot against
Western Civilization.
Threat #4: Middle East Unrest
A headline like this would traditionally mean unrest between Israel and Palestinians, but today we are talking about potential conflict with Iran and Syria and the former's role in aiding terrorists, including Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, the branch of this well-known terrorist organization that targets American troops in Iraq and is responsible for many of the road side bombs and suicide bombers.
Iran is a disruptive influence in the Middle East, a nation headed by a crazy man, a nation seeking nuclear weapons, and a nation that has expressed its desire to wipe Israel off the face of the earth. It appears bent on conflict with the U.S. as well as Israel and in Captain Dave's opinion is the country most likely to use nuclear weapons in war, either by targeting them at Israel, or by becoming a target of them.
In search of allies, Iran is lending money to Syria so that they can improve their armaments and build additional rocket inventories. Syria has plenty of Scud missiles, and is also acquiring new anti-tank and anti-aircraft rockets. Because Israeli tanks are a primary weapon in their ground offensive, and because Iran and Syria both funnel weapons to Hamas and other terrorist organizations that attack Israel, this is tantamount to an arms race in the Middle East.
Iran's power is bolstered not the high cost of oil, but it’s location on the straight of Hormuz. This location gives Iran the power to quickly block the flow of oil tankers from the Persian Gulf through this narrow passage to the ocean. Since 30% of the world's oil passes through the straight, any conflict with Iran would send oil prices soaring and disrupt the global economy (of course, it would also piss off China and many other countries). Keeping the straight open with the U.S. of war ships and aircraft in the area is possible but difficult, given that Iran could launch anti-ship missiles from land as well as attack on the water.
Threat # 5: It's the Economy, Stupid
OK, so the housing boom went bust, the price of gasoline is often above $3 a gallon, and growth is slowing. Captain Dave just can't get too excited about this. The economy is cyclical, and barring a disaster (such as Bird Flu or a terrorist attack) the country should be able to withstand periods of slower growth or even contraction with the expectation that growth will return. In fact, a slowing global economy might even resulting lower gasoline costs
Captain Dave feels that politics is the real problem, and that once the presidential election is behind us, the economy will start to recover. Stupid consumers are another problem – people who spend money they do not have, get in debt over their heads and then look to the government and the tax payer to bail them out. In our opinion, it's pretty simple: if you can't afford the mortgage payment, don't buy the house.
Politics and the economy have forced issues like Bird Flu and the threat of terrorism off the front pages, but that does not mean these are life threatening issues. Keep in mind that the newspapers write and the TV Networks broadcast what people want to hear. Not what they need to hear.
